Assumption Ledger · Variant Map
Every assumption the price requires, and Mercer's verdict on it
Every assumption the price requires, and Mercer's verdict on it.
| # | Line item | Market assumption | Required path | Judgment | Δ value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | revenue | Market price implies AI ads ranking and recommendation model improvements delivers ~21.12% revenue_growth_pct over 10y. | revenue_growth_pct 9.93 / 21.12 / 25.09 | Adjust | +60 bps | See more ▸ |
| 2 | revenue | Market price implies User engagement growth from content recommendation improvements delivers ~21.12% revenue_growth_pct over 10y. | revenue_growth_pct 9.93 / 21.12 / 25.09 | Accept | 0 bps | See more ▸ |
| 3 | revenue | Market price implies Advertising demand and pricing dynamics delivers ~21.12% revenue_growth_pct over 10y. | revenue_growth_pct 9.93 / 21.12 / 25.09 | Accept | 0 bps | See more ▸ |
| 4 | revenue | Market price implies Reality Labs hardware sales (AI glasses and Quest) delivers ~21.12% revenue_growth_pct over 10y. | revenue_growth_pct 9.93 / 21.12 / 25.09 | Adjust | -40 bps | See more ▸ |
| 5 | revenue | Market price implies WhatsApp/business messaging and subscriptions monetization delivers ~21.12% revenue_growth_pct over 10y. | revenue_growth_pct 9.93 / 21.12 / 25.09 | Accept | 0 bps | See more ▸ |
| 6 | revenue | Market price implies Advantage+ automation and AI ad creative adoption delivers ~21.12% revenue_growth_pct over 10y. | revenue_growth_pct 9.93 / 21.12 / 25.09 | Adjust | +70 bps | See more ▸ |
| 7 | revenue | Market price implies User base growth and engagement across Family of Apps delivers ~21.12% revenue_growth_pct over 10y. | revenue_growth_pct 9.93 / 21.12 / 25.09 | Accept | 0 bps | See more ▸ |
| 8 | operating_expense | Market price implies Legal accruals and related expense volatility delivers ~16.35% operating_expense_growth_pct over 10y. | operating_expense_growth_pct 6.7 / 16.35 / 35.21 | Unresolved | 0 bps | See more ▸ |
| 9 | revenue | Market price implies Meta AI assistant adoption and engagement delivers ~21.12% revenue_growth_pct over 10y. | revenue_growth_pct 9.93 / 21.12 / 25.09 | Unresolved | 0 bps | See more ▸ |
| 10 | operating_expense | Market price implies Technical and AI talent compensation growth delivers ~16.35% operating_expense_growth_pct over 10y. | operating_expense_growth_pct 6.7 / 16.35 / 35.21 | Adjust | -50 bps | See more ▸ |
| 11 | capex | Market price implies AI infrastructure capital expenditure and depreciation delivers ~36.59% capex_growth_pct over 10y. | capex_growth_pct 16.79 / 36.59 / 73.35 | Adjust | -90 bps | See more ▸ |
| 12 | cost_of_revenue | Market price implies Infrastructure efficiency and custom silicon delivers ~16.61% cost_of_revenue_growth_pct over 10y. | cost_of_revenue_growth_pct 8.69 / 16.61 / 23.75 | Accept | 0 bps | See more ▸ |
| 13 | operating_expense | Market price implies Engineering productivity from AI coding tools delivers ~16.35% operating_expense_growth_pct over 10y. | operating_expense_growth_pct 6.7 / 16.35 / 35.21 | Accept | 0 bps | See more ▸ |
| 14 | capex | Market price implies Compute capacity constraints relative to demand delivers ~36.59% capex_growth_pct over 10y. | capex_growth_pct 16.79 / 36.59 / 73.35 | Accept | 0 bps | See more ▸ |
| 15 | operating_expense | Market price implies Reality Labs investment and operating losses delivers ~16.35% operating_expense_growth_pct over 10y. | operating_expense_growth_pct 6.7 / 16.35 / 35.21 | Adjust | -60 bps | See more ▸ |