Reasoning Trail

How the decision was reached, step by step

14 steps from raw data through to the final decision, in order. Open any step to read what it considered and concluded.

Process rail
DataMarket Tape→Market ViewBusiness Driver Map→Market ViewMarket Move Attribution→Market Implied PathImplied (reverse) DCF→Market Implied PathMarket-Implied Driver Bridge→Market Implied PathNews-Attributed Market Attention Weight→Market Implied PathMarket-Implied Assumption Ledger→Mercer AdjudicationMercer Adjudication→ScenarioCatalyst Map→ScenarioScenario Impact & Probability→ScenarioCountercase→ScenarioInvalidation Triggers→Final DecisionFinal Reconciliation→PmPM Sizing Handoff
  1. Market TapeData

    Low-abstraction market microstructure from price/volume data only.

  2. Business Driver MapMarket View

    Discover and classify earnings drivers from fundamentals; validate claims against the record.

  3. Market Move AttributionMarket View

    Map public information onto observed price/volume moves; classify each explanation.

  4. Implied (reverse) DCFMarket Implied Path

    Reverse-solves the constant FCF growth that the price and WACC imply. Breaks FCF into line-items based on historical ranges.

  5. Market-Implied Driver BridgeMarket Implied Path

    Translate the DCF required path into per-driver dollar/PV required contributions.

  6. News-Attributed Market Attention WeightMarket Implied Path

    Weight each revenue component by how much news-driven price formation it carries, not by how big it is today; dampen single-component attribution.

  7. Market-Implied Assumption LedgerMarket Implied Path

    State, per row, what the current price appears to require — neutral, materiality-ranked.

  8. Mercer AdjudicationMercer Adjudication

    Adjudicate every market-implied assumption (accept/adjust/reject/unresolved) — no forced disagreement.

  9. Catalyst MapScenario

    Generate assumption-linked catalysts across the four families from the adjudication trail.

  10. Scenario Impact & ProbabilityScenario

    Compute deterministic valuation impacts, probabilities and EV per assumption.

  11. CountercaseScenario

    Find which Mercer judgments are most fragile and compute thesis survival.

  12. Invalidation TriggersScenario

    Map fragile judgments to monitorable invalidation triggers and a watch calendar.

  13. Final ReconciliationFinal Decision

    Blend component edges with dynamic weights + survival into a final direction; honour all gates.

  14. PM Sizing HandoffPm

    Hand the authoritative analyst decision to the PM with a guardrailed size.