Market-Implied DCF · PLTR
Market-Implied DCF — full build
The full reverse-DCF build behind the current price: per-year projection, line-item growth ranges, raw model inputs, and the historical UFCF that seeds it.
Implied FCF growth
43.22%
WACC
12.87%
Terminal growth
2.50%
Total EV (PV)
$244.33B
A · Projection & terminal value
Per-year unlevered FCF, discount factors, and the terminal-value bridge
| Year | Projected UFCF | Discount factor | Discounted UFCF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1.75B | 1.1287 | $1.55B |
| 2 | $2.51B | 1.2740 | $1.97B |
| 3 | $3.60B | 1.4380 | $2.50B |
| 4 | $5.15B | 1.6232 | $3.18B |
| 5 | $7.38B | 1.8321 | $4.03B |
| 6 | $10.57B | 2.0679 | $5.11B |
| 7 | $15.14B | 2.3341 | $6.49B |
| 8 | $21.69B | 2.6346 | $8.23B |
| 9 | $31.06B | 2.9738 | $10.44B |
| 10 | $44.49B | 3.3566 | $13.25B |
| Terminal FCF | $65.31B | ||
| Terminal value | $629.59B | ||
| Discounted terminal value | $187.57B | ||
| Total enterprise value (PV) | $244.33B | ||
| Enterprise value anchor | $244.33B | ||
B · Line-item growth ranges
Low / mid / high annual growth implied for each line item
| Line item | Low % | Mid % | High % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20.5% | 30.4% | 41.5% |
| Cost of revenue | 11.3% | 23.9% | 33.6% |
| Operating expense | 0.5% | 5.7% | 22.0% |
| D&A | -4.7% | 5.3% | 36.4% |
| Capex | -34.0% | 9.3% | 149.0% |
C · Raw model inputs
Baseline model assumptions
WACC
12.87%
Terminal growth
2.50%
Cost of equity
12.88%
Cost of debt
0.00%
Risk-free rate
4.40%
Effective tax rate
1.86%
Beta
1.51
Projection years
—
Shares outstanding
2296070000
Market cap
$246.30B
Enterprise value (anchor)
$244.33B
Total debt
$212.0M
Cash & equivalents
$2.29B
Preferred stock
$0.00
Minority interest
$106.6M
Weight · equity
99.9%
Weight · debt
0.1%
Weight · preferred
0.0%
D · Historical UFCF (quarterly)
Statement-built unlevered free cash flow by quarter
| Period | Revenue | Cost of revenue | Operating expense | EBIT | D&A | Capex | UFCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020Q2 | $251.9M | $68.4M | $282.6M | $-99.1M | $4.1M | $2.9M | $71.1M |
| 2020Q3 | $289.4M | $149.3M | $987.8M | $-847.8M | $2.5M | $1.5M | $-32.2M |
| 2020Q4 | $322.1M | $70.5M | $408.2M | $-156.6M | $3.6M | $4.8M | $-28.4M |
| 2021Q1 | $341.2M | $74.1M | $381.1M | $-114.0M | $3.2M | $708.0K | $127.8M |
| 2021Q2 | $375.6M | $90.9M | $430.9M | $-146.1M | $4.8M | $697.0K | $17.2M |
| 2021Q3 | $392.1M | $86.8M | $397.3M | $-91.9M | $3.1M | $5.4M | $107.3M |
| 2021Q4 | $432.9M | $87.6M | $404.2M | $-58.9M | $3.8M | $5.8M | $185.9M |
| 2022Q1 | $446.4M | $94.4M | $391.4M | $-39.4M | $4.3M | $15.2M | $82.9M |
| 2022Q2 | $473.0M | $102.2M | $412.5M | $-41.7M | $4.9M | $5.5M | $195.3M |
| 2022Q3 | $477.9M | $107.6M | $432.5M | $-62.2M | $5.9M | $14.4M | $95.5M |
| 2022Q4 | $508.6M | $104.3M | $422.1M | $-17.8M | $7.4M | $4.9M | $25.5M |
| 2023Q1 | $525.2M | $107.6M | $413.4M | $4.1M | $8.3M | $4.8M | $169.9M |
| 2023Q2 | $533.3M | $106.9M | $416.3M | $10.1M | $8.4M | $3.9M | $68.0M |
| 2023Q3 | $558.2M | $107.9M | $410.3M | $40.0M | $8.7M | $1.6M | $99.6M |
| 2023Q4 | $608.4M | $108.6M | $433.9M | $65.8M | $8.0M | $4.9M | $267.5M |
| 2024Q1 | $634.3M | $116.3M | $437.2M | $80.9M | $8.4M | $2.7M | $100.8M |
| 2024Q2 | $678.1M | $128.6M | $444.2M | $105.3M | $8.1M | $2.9M | $110.6M |
| 2024Q3 | $725.5M | $146.6M | $465.7M | $113.1M | $8.1M | $4.0M | $383.3M |
| 2024Q4 | $827.5M | $174.5M | $641.9M | $11.0M | $7.0M | $3.1M | $389.0M |
| 2025Q1 | $883.9M | $173.0M | $534.8M | $176.0M | $6.6M | $6.2M | $262.8M |
| 2025Q2 | $1.00B | $192.9M | $541.4M | $269.3M | $6.5M | $7.6M | $469.2M |
| 2025Q3 | $1.18B | $207.3M | $580.5M | $393.3M | $6.0M | $6.8M | $412.2M |
| 2025Q4 | $1.41B | $216.0M | $615.4M | $575.4M | $7.0M | $13.3M | $720.0M |
| 2026Q1 | $1.63B | $215.8M | $662.8M | $754.0M | $6.8M | $7.4M | $761.2M |