Mercer Adjudication Build

Which of the market's assumptions does Mercer accept, adjust, reject, or leave unresolved?

Adjudication, not forced disagreement. Accepting the market view is a normal, valid outcome — conviction comes only from evidence-backed adjustments.

Accepted

16

Adjusted

1

Rejected

0

Unresolved

0

Net edge (pre-countercase)

-40 bps

17 of 17

Assumption	Market-implied view	Mercer judgment	Mercer view	Valuation impact	Confidence	Catalysts
drv_pltr_aip_driven_u_s_commercial_demand_and_adoption A01_drv_pltr_aip_driven_u_s_commercial_demand_and_adoption · revenue	Market price implies AIP-driven U.S. commercial demand and adoption delivers ~30.4% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	The required ~30.4% 10y revenue CAGR is below current run-rate growth. PLTR posted 85% total and 104% U.S. growth in 2026Q1 with U.S. commercial accelerating (FY26 U.S. comm guide ~120% Y/Y). Near-term momentum amply supports the early years; the question is durability, but a 30% decade-average is plausibly bridged by current trajectory.	0 bps	60	2
drv_pltr_operating_leverage_and_lean_talent_focused_model A02_drv_pltr_operating_leverage_and_lean_talent_focused_model · operating_expense	Market price implies Operating leverage and lean talent-focused model delivers ~5.69% operating_expense_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Operating margin expansion is evident: GAAP op margin rose from ~13% (2024Q1) to 46% (2026Q1) while opex grew far slower than revenue. A ~5.69% opex CAGR alongside 30% revenue growth implies massive leverage, which is consistent with demonstrated track record but aggressive over a full decade.	0 bps	55	2
drv_pltr_u_s_government_defense_ai_software_demand A03_drv_pltr_u_s_government_defense_ai_software_demand · revenue	Market price implies U.S. government / defense AI software demand delivers ~30.4% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Government segment ($2.40B) remains the larger half and continues to grow with Maven/Warp Speed deployments. A 30% blended contribution is reasonable given defense AI tailwinds, though government growth has historically lagged commercial.	0 bps	60	2
drv_pltr_net_dollar_retention_from_existing_customer_expansion A04_drv_pltr_net_dollar_retention_from_existing_customer_expansion · revenue	Market price implies Net dollar retention from existing-customer expansion delivers ~30.4% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Top-20 customer TTM revenue grew 45% to $94M each, evidencing strong expansion economics consistent with the implied growth contribution.	0 bps	55	2
drv_pltr_ontology_two_decade_platform_differentiation_enabling_enterp A05_drv_pltr_ontology_two_decade_platform_differentiation_enabling_enterp · revenue	Market price implies Ontology / two-decade platform differentiation enabling enterprise LLM value delivers ~30.4% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Ontology differentiation is a credible moat repeatedly cited by customers ('the Ontology is the secret weapon'). Supports the durability premise behind the implied revenue path.	0 bps	55	2
drv_pltr_large_deal_closings_and_tcv_bookings A06_drv_pltr_large_deal_closings_and_tcv_bookings · revenue	Market price implies Large deal closings and TCV bookings delivers ~30.4% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Record $4.3B TCV quarter in 2025Q4 directly supports forward revenue visibility consistent with implied growth.	0 bps	60	2
drv_pltr_boot_camp_go_to_market_motion A07_drv_pltr_boot_camp_go_to_market_motion · revenue	Market price implies Boot camp go-to-market motion delivers ~30.4% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Bootcamp motion has been a proven funnel accelerator for U.S. commercial; consistent with the revenue path but a minor, low-materiality driver.	0 bps	50	2
drv_pltr_international_u_k_government_and_commercial_demand A08_drv_pltr_international_u_k_government_and_commercial_demand · revenue	Market price implies International / U.K. government and commercial demand delivers ~30.4% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Adjust	Growth is overwhelmingly U.S.-driven (79% of revenue, +104%), while international has lagged materially. Applying the blended ~30.4% to international is generous; this driver likely underdelivers relative to the implied path.	-40 bps	50	2
drv_pltr_maven_shipos_warp_speed_defense_platform_deployments A09_drv_pltr_maven_shipos_warp_speed_defense_platform_deployments · revenue	Market price implies Maven/ShipOS/Warp Speed defense platform deployments delivers ~30.4% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Defense platform deployments (Maven, Warp Speed) underpin government growth and are a credible contributor to the implied revenue path.	0 bps	55	2
drv_pltr_product_credibility_reputation_and_customer_references A10_drv_pltr_product_credibility_reputation_and_customer_references · revenue	Market price implies Product credibility, reputation, and customer references delivers ~30.4% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Strong customer references (Johnson Controls, GE Aerospace, AIG, Thomas Cavanagh) reinforce credibility supporting continued demand.	0 bps	55	2
drv_pltr_partnership_fedstart_ecosystem_strategy A11_drv_pltr_partnership_fedstart_ecosystem_strategy · revenue	Market price implies Partnership/FedStart ecosystem strategy delivers ~30.4% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	FedStart and partnership ecosystem expand reach into the federal market; supportive but low-materiality and less directly quantified.	0 bps	45	0
drv_pltr_excess_demand_exceeding_delivery_capacity A12_drv_pltr_excess_demand_exceeding_delivery_capacity · revenue	Market price implies Excess demand exceeding delivery capacity delivers ~30.4% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Management indicates demand exceeds delivery capacity, supportive of sustained growth but capacity constraints could cap upside near-term.	0 bps	50	0
drv_pltr_replacement_of_legacy_enterprise_software A13_drv_pltr_replacement_of_legacy_enterprise_software · revenue	Market price implies Replacement of legacy enterprise software delivers ~30.4% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Customer commentary ('every other software must justify its existence... Foundry is our operating system') supports displacement thesis underpinning TAM expansion.	0 bps	50	0
drv_pltr_continued_investment_in_aip_and_technical_hiring A14_drv_pltr_continued_investment_in_aip_and_technical_hiring · operating_expense	Market price implies Continued investment in AIP and technical hiring delivers ~5.69% operating_expense_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Continued AIP/hiring investment is consistent with a contained opex growth path given demonstrated leverage, though risk of higher spend exists.	0 bps	50	0
drv_pltr_talent_attraction_and_retention_via_high_impact_ai_work A15_drv_pltr_talent_attraction_and_retention_via_high_impact_ai_work · operating_expense	Market price implies Talent attraction and retention via high-impact AI work delivers ~5.69% operating_expense_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	PLTR's mission-driven appeal supports talent retention at lower comp cost than peers, consistent with a lean opex model.	0 bps	45	0
A90_discount_rate A90_discount_rate · wacc	Market accepts a 0.128729 WACC for the implied path.	Accept	A ~12.87% WACC is reasonable for a high-beta, high-growth software name with negligible debt. Slightly elevated discount appropriately reflects volatility and rich valuation risk.	0 bps	55	0
A91_terminal_growth A91_terminal_growth · terminal_growth	Market embeds a 2.5% perpetual terminal growth.	Accept	A 2.5% perpetual terminal growth is standard and conservative, roughly in line with long-run nominal GDP; reasonable for any mature enterprise.	0 bps	60	0