Catalysts · Scenarios · Probability

Catalysts as tests of assumptions

Each catalyst is a test of a specific assumption and Mercer's judgment of it — not an isolated event.

Market-confirming
8
Market-breaking
8
Mercer-confirming
2
Mercer-invalidating
2
Unquantifiable
4
20 catalysts
CatalystLinked assumptionFamilyDirectionProbabilityImpactExpected valueTimingMonitoring metric
Boost Mobile net adds turn positive with sub-2% monthly churn in next quarterly printA01_drv_sats_boost_mobile_subscriber_acquisition_and_churn_improvementMarket ConfirmingUp0%0 bps0 bpsNext Earnings (2026 Q1, ~May 2026)Boost Mobile net subscriber adds and reported monthly churn rate
Boost Mobile resumes net subscriber losses as promotional acquisition cohorts churn offA01_drv_sats_boost_mobile_subscriber_acquisition_and_churn_improvementMarket BreakingDown0%0 bps0 bpsFY2026 Q1 Q2 PrintsBoost Mobile sequential net adds; churn vs prior quarter
Pay-TV (DISH + Sling) attrition continues at industry-normal high-single-digit annual rateA02_drv_sats_pay_tv_subscriber_attrition_from_cord_cutting_and_content_frMarket ConfirmingUp0%0 bps0 bpsNext Earnings (2026 Q1)DISH TV + Sling net subscriber losses; total Pay-TV subscriber base
Accelerated Pay-TV churn from a major content carriage dispute or blackoutA02_drv_sats_pay_tv_subscriber_attrition_from_cord_cutting_and_content_frMarket BreakingDown0%0 bps0 bpsAny FY2026 Carriage Renewal WindowQuarterly Pay-TV net loss magnitude; presence of channel blackouts
Pay-TV ARPU continues low-single-digit annual growth offsetting volume lossesA03_drv_sats_pay_tv_arpu_growth_and_subscriber_quality_loyalty_initiativeMarket ConfirmingUp0%0 bps0 bpsNext Earnings (2026 Q1)DISH TV / Sling ARPU year-over-year change
ARPU growth stalls as price increases trigger faster premium-subscriber defectionA03_drv_sats_pay_tv_arpu_growth_and_subscriber_quality_loyalty_initiativeMarket BreakingDown0%0 bps0 bpsFY2026 Q1 Q3Sequential ARPU trend vs subscriber loss rate
5G network opex growth decelerates as buildout reaches >80% population coverageA04_drv_sats_wireless_network_operating_cost_ramp_from_expanding_5g_footpMarket ConfirmingUp0%0 bps0 bpsFY2026 Buildout Milestone UpdatesWireless network operating cost growth; reported 5G population coverage %
Network opex re-accelerates on densification, roaming, and cloud-RAN scalingA04_drv_sats_wireless_network_operating_cost_ramp_from_expanding_5g_footpMarket BreakingDown0%0 bps0 bpsFY2026 Q1 Q4Wireless segment cost of services growth; roaming/offload expense disclosures
Hughes enterprise/government backlog trend remains undisclosed and unresolvedA05_drv_sats_enterprise_and_government_satellite_connectivity_bookingsMarket BreakingDown0%0 bps0 bpsFY2026 Segment Disclosures / 10 K DetailHughes enterprise & government revenue and backlog commentary
Hughes consumer broadband losses persist amid GEO capacity constraints pending Jupiter 3 fillA06_drv_sats_broadband_consumer_subscriber_declines_and_satellite_capacitMarket ConfirmingUp0%0 bps0 bpsNext Earnings (2026 Q1)Hughes consumer broadband net subscriber losses; capacity utilization
Broadband subscriber declines steepen as fixed-wireless/fiber substitution acceleratesA06_drv_sats_broadband_consumer_subscriber_declines_and_satellite_capacitMarket BreakingDown0%0 bps0 bpsFY2026 Q1 Q3Hughes consumer broadband sequential net losses vs prior trend
Debt refinancing / DISH DBS notes restructuring reduces cash interest burdenA07_drv_sats_debt_driven_interest_expense_burdenMercer ConfirmingUp60%+60 bps+36 bpsFY2026 Debt Maturity / Refinancing WindowsWeighted-average coupon; cash interest expense; net leverage ratio
DISH DBS payment/maturity stress forces costly new financing at elevated ratesA07_drv_sats_debt_driven_interest_expense_burdenMercer InvalidatingDown60%+60 bps+36 bpsFY2026 DBS Maturity / Coupon DatesDISH DBS note maturities, coupon on new issuance, liquidity headroom
Boost postpaid distribution gaps persist, keeping postpaid contribution immaterialA08_drv_sats_postpaid_boost_infinite_go_to_market_execution_gapsMarket ConfirmingUp0%0 bps0 bpsFY2026 Q1 Q2Postpaid net adds; retail distribution point count
Postpaid go-to-market deteriorates further with elevated subsidy-driven lossesA08_drv_sats_postpaid_boost_infinite_go_to_market_execution_gapsMarket BreakingDown0%0 bps0 bpsFY2026 Q1 Q3Postpaid churn and gross add cost trends
SG&A reductions continue as legacy DISH/Hughes integration synergies are realizedA09_drv_sats_operating_efficiency_and_sg_a_cost_optimizationMarket ConfirmingUp0%0 bps0 bpsNext Earnings (2026 Q1)SG&A as % of revenue; absolute SG&A year-over-year change
SG&A optimization stalls or reverses on wireless marketing reinvestmentA09_drv_sats_operating_efficiency_and_sg_a_cost_optimizationMarket BreakingDown0%0 bps0 bpsFY2026 Q1 Q4SG&A growth; marketing/advertising expense disclosures
FCC AWS-3 (Auction 113) and spectrum buildout deadline resolution crystallizes portfolio valueA10_drv_sats_spectrum_portfolio_value_and_fcc_regulatory_resolutionMercer ConfirmingUp62%+150 bps+93 bpsFCC Auction 113 Process / 2026 Buildout DeadlineFCC orders on buildout deadlines; spectrum sale/lease announcements; auction outcome
Adverse FCC ruling or forced spectrum divestiture at distressed valuationA10_drv_sats_spectrum_portfolio_value_and_fcc_regulatory_resolutionMercer InvalidatingDown62%+150 bps+93 bpsFCC Review Windows / 2026FCC license status rulings; any divestiture pricing vs prior marks
Wireless acquisition cost and device subsidy intensity moderates as net adds stabilizeA11_drv_sats_wireless_subscriber_acquisition_costs_and_device_subsidiesMarket ConfirmingUp0%0 bps0 bpsNext Earnings (2026 Q1)Cost per gross add; device subsidy / equipment cost in wireless segment
Scenario bridge
Catalyst EV, scenario spread, and projection valuation into the final edge
Catalyst-weighted expected value+57 bps
Probability-weighted payoff from the specific events we're watching.
weight 50.0%
included
Bull vs bear scenario spread+57 bps
The gap between our upside and downside cases for the business.
weight 22.5%
included
Fundamental fair-value gap+9,813 bps
Our re-projected DCF fair value versus the current price.
weight 20.0%
included
Blended × survival (14%) = risk-adjusted edge+299 bps