Mercer Adjudication Build

Which of the market's assumptions does Mercer accept, adjust, reject, or leave unresolved?

Adjudication, not forced disagreement. Accepting the market view is a normal, valid outcome — conviction comes only from evidence-backed adjustments.

Accepted

Adjusted

Rejected

Unresolved

Net edge (pre-countercase)

+90 bps

20 of 20

Assumption	Market-implied view	Mercer judgment	Mercer view	Valuation impact	Confidence	Catalysts
drv_sats_boost_mobile_subscriber_acquisition_and_churn_improvement A01_drv_sats_boost_mobile_subscriber_acquisition_and_churn_improvement · revenue	Market price implies Boost Mobile subscriber acquisition and churn improvement delivers ~-3.96% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Persistent revenue declines (-3.6% to -7.1% YoY across 2025) are consistent with a market-implied ~-3.96% blended revenue path. Boost subscriber/churn improvements have not reversed the wireless drag enough to justify departure from the implied path.	0 bps	55	2
drv_sats_pay_tv_subscriber_attrition_from_cord_cutting_and_content_fr A02_drv_sats_pay_tv_subscriber_attrition_from_cord_cutting_and_content_fr · revenue	Market price implies Pay-TV subscriber attrition from cord-cutting and content fragmentation delivers ~-3.96% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Pay-TV attrition is a structural secular decline; the implied -3.96% revenue path embeds continued erosion, which is consistent with cord-cutting dynamics and the revenue trajectory.	0 bps	60	2
drv_sats_pay_tv_arpu_growth_and_subscriber_quality_loyalty_initiative A03_drv_sats_pay_tv_arpu_growth_and_subscriber_quality_loyalty_initiative · revenue	Market price implies Pay-TV ARPU growth and subscriber-quality/loyalty initiatives delivers ~-3.96% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	ARPU/loyalty initiatives are a partial offset already embedded in a modestly negative revenue path. No evidence supports outperformance beyond the implied range.	0 bps	50	2
drv_sats_wireless_network_operating_cost_ramp_from_expanding_5g_footp A04_drv_sats_wireless_network_operating_cost_ramp_from_expanding_5g_footp · operating_expense	Market price implies Wireless network operating cost ramp from expanding 5G footprint delivers ~-3.33% operating_expense_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Opex declining ~-3.33% is plausible as the 5G build-out matures toward optimization. Operating margins turned positive in 2025Q4 (9.8%) and 2026Q1 (8.9%), suggesting cost discipline is consistent with implied path.	0 bps	50	2
drv_sats_enterprise_and_government_satellite_connectivity_bookings A05_drv_sats_enterprise_and_government_satellite_connectivity_bookings · revenue	Market price implies Enterprise and government satellite/connectivity bookings delivers ~-3.96% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Unresolved	No specific evidence on enterprise/government bookings trajectory in provided materials; cannot assess whether implied -3.96% under- or over-states this segment.	0 bps	35	1
drv_sats_broadband_consumer_subscriber_declines_and_satellite_capacit A06_drv_sats_broadband_consumer_subscriber_declines_and_satellite_capacit · revenue	Market price implies Broadband consumer subscriber declines and satellite capacity constraints delivers ~-3.96% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Hughes consumer broadband has been in subscriber decline; Jupiter 3 adds capacity but consumer attrition is real. Implied negative revenue path is consistent.	0 bps	50	2
drv_sats_debt_driven_interest_expense_burden A07_drv_sats_debt_driven_interest_expense_burden · operating_expense	Market price implies Debt-driven interest expense burden delivers ~-3.33% operating_expense_growth_pct over 10y.	Adjust	The pending ~$23B AT&T and ~$19B+ SpaceX spectrum sales provide capital to pay down expensive/maturing debt, which should reduce interest burden faster than a generic -3.33% opex decline implies. Modest positive value skew.	+60 bps	50	2
drv_sats_postpaid_boost_infinite_go_to_market_execution_gaps A08_drv_sats_postpaid_boost_infinite_go_to_market_execution_gaps · revenue	Market price implies Postpaid (Boost Infinite) go-to-market execution gaps delivers ~-3.96% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Boost Infinite execution has been challenged; the implied negative revenue path is consistent with continuing go-to-market gaps. No evidence of breakout success.	0 bps	45	2
drv_sats_operating_efficiency_and_sg_a_cost_optimization A09_drv_sats_operating_efficiency_and_sg_a_cost_optimization · operating_expense	Market price implies Operating efficiency and SG&A cost optimization delivers ~-3.33% operating_expense_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Operating margin inflection to positive in recent quarters supports SG&A optimization in line with implied opex decline. Consistent with market.	0 bps	55	2
drv_sats_spectrum_portfolio_value_and_fcc_regulatory_resolution A10_drv_sats_spectrum_portfolio_value_and_fcc_regulatory_resolution · revenue	Market price implies Spectrum portfolio value and FCC regulatory resolution delivers ~-3.96% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Adjust	FCC review resolved via ~$23B AT&T and ~$19B+ SpaceX spectrum monetization. This is a material realized value event the assumption frames only as a -3.96% revenue line; the asset monetization underpins balance-sheet repair and optionality. Modest positive skew, though much may be priced in after a 627% run.	+150 bps	55	2
drv_sats_wireless_subscriber_acquisition_costs_and_device_subsidies A11_drv_sats_wireless_subscriber_acquisition_costs_and_device_subsidies · operating_expense	Market price implies Wireless subscriber acquisition costs and device subsidies delivers ~-3.33% operating_expense_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	SAC and device subsidies declining in line with implied opex reduction is plausible as Boost moderates aggressive promo spend. Consistent with margin improvement.	0 bps	45	1
drv_sats_capital_expenditure_decline_from_5g_build_out_completion_to_ A12_drv_sats_capital_expenditure_decline_from_5g_build_out_completion_to_ · capex	Market price implies Capital expenditure decline from 5G build-out completion to optimization delivers ~-34.9% capex_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Capex is already declining sharply as 5G build-out matures — 2026Q1 capex $133M vs $520M in 2024Q1. The implied steep capex decline (~-34.9%) is corroborated by the spending trend.	0 bps	55	0
drv_sats_jupiter_3_satellite_capacity_expansion_and_fusion_plan_adopt A13_drv_sats_jupiter_3_satellite_capacity_expansion_and_fusion_plan_adopt · revenue	Market price implies Jupiter 3 satellite capacity expansion and Fusion plan adoption delivers ~-3.96% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Unresolved	No specific evidence on Jupiter 3 / Fusion plan adoption rates in provided materials to judge against implied revenue path.	0 bps	35	0
drv_sats_cloud_native_open_ran_network_architecture_cost_advantage A14_drv_sats_cloud_native_open_ran_network_architecture_cost_advantage · cost_of_revenue	Market price implies Cloud-native open RAN network architecture cost advantage delivers ~0.79% cost_of_revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Open RAN cost advantage implied as ~0.79% cost_of_revenue growth (near-flat) is reasonable; gross margins are volatile but not deteriorating sharply. No evidence to depart.	0 bps	40	0
drv_sats_migration_of_customers_to_owned_5g_network_owner_economics A15_drv_sats_migration_of_customers_to_owned_5g_network_owner_economics · cost_of_revenue	Market price implies Migration of customers to owned 5G network (owner economics) delivers ~0.79% cost_of_revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	Migration to owned network improves owner economics over time, broadly consistent with near-flat cost-of-revenue growth implied. No evidence supports a stronger deviation.	0 bps	40	0
drv_sats_wireless_arpu_uplift_from_plan_mix_shift_and_value_added_ser A16_drv_sats_wireless_arpu_uplift_from_plan_mix_shift_and_value_added_ser · revenue	Market price implies Wireless ARPU uplift from plan-mix shift and value-added services delivers ~-3.96% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Accept	ARPU uplift is a partial offset within a still-negative revenue path; no evidence of breakout ARPU growth that would justify deviation from implied -3.96%.	0 bps	40	0
drv_sats_cross_segment_bundling_of_tv_broadband_and_wireless A17_drv_sats_cross_segment_bundling_of_tv_broadband_and_wireless · revenue	Market price implies Cross-segment bundling of TV, broadband and wireless delivers ~-3.96% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Unresolved	No specific evidence on cross-segment bundling traction. Cannot conclude over/under-statement vs implied path.	0 bps	30	0
drv_sats_dish_connected_programmatic_advertising_platform A18_drv_sats_dish_connected_programmatic_advertising_platform · revenue	Market price implies DISH Connected programmatic advertising platform delivers ~-3.96% revenue_growth_pct over 10y.	Unresolved	No evidence on DISH Connected advertising platform scale in provided materials. Immaterial and unresolved.	0 bps	30	0
A90_discount_rate A90_discount_rate · wacc	Market accepts a 0.07301 WACC for the implied path.	Adjust	A 7.30% WACC looks low for a company with very high leverage, DBS payment risk, persistent net losses (including a -$12.8B charge in 2025Q3) and 36%+ short interest. The risk profile arguably warrants a higher discount rate, implying less value than the market embeds.	-120 bps	50	0
A91_terminal_growth A91_terminal_growth · terminal_growth	Market embeds a 2.5% perpetual terminal growth.	Accept	A 2.5% perpetual terminal growth (~ GDP/inflation) is a standard and reasonable assumption, especially after the company's transformation toward owned 5G and capital deployment from spectrum proceeds. Neither aggressive nor conservative.	0 bps	50	0