Market-Implied DCF · SATS
Market-Implied DCF — full build
The full reverse-DCF build behind the current price: per-year projection, line-item growth ranges, raw model inputs, and the historical UFCF that seeds it.
Implied FCF growth
-9.55%
WACC
7.30%
Terminal growth
2.50%
Total EV (PV)
$55.83B
A · Projection & terminal value
Per-year unlevered FCF, discount factors, and the terminal-value bridge
| Year | Projected UFCF | Discount factor | Discounted UFCF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $6.40B | 1.0730 | $5.96B |
| 2 | $5.79B | 1.1514 | $5.03B |
| 3 | $5.23B | 1.2354 | $4.24B |
| 4 | $4.73B | 1.3256 | $3.57B |
| 5 | $4.28B | 1.4224 | $3.01B |
| 6 | $3.87B | 1.5262 | $2.54B |
| 7 | $3.50B | 1.6377 | $2.14B |
| 8 | $3.17B | 1.7572 | $1.80B |
| 9 | $2.87B | 1.8855 | $1.52B |
| 10 | $2.59B | 2.0232 | $1.28B |
| Terminal FCF | $2.40B | ||
| Terminal value | $50.05B | ||
| Discounted terminal value | $24.74B | ||
| Total enterprise value (PV) | $55.83B | ||
| Enterprise value anchor | $55.83B | ||
B · Line-item growth ranges
Low / mid / high annual growth implied for each line item
| Line item | Low % | Mid % | High % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | -6.1% | -4.0% | 0.7% |
| Cost of revenue | -4.0% | 0.8% | 9.3% |
| Operating expense | -6.5% | -3.3% | 3.7% |
| D&A | -13.9% | -6.8% | 28.6% |
| Capex | -52.7% | -34.9% | -11.8% |
C · Raw model inputs
Baseline model assumptions
WACC
7.30%
Terminal growth
2.50%
Cost of equity
9.79%
Cost of debt
6.24%
Risk-free rate
4.40%
Effective tax rate
21.00%
Beta
0.96
Projection years
—
Shares outstanding
288214948
Market cap
$27.84B
Enterprise value (anchor)
$55.83B
Total debt
$29.29B
Cash & equivalents
$1.34B
Preferred stock
$0.00
Minority interest
$46.1M
Weight · equity
48.7%
Weight · debt
51.3%
Weight · preferred
0.0%
D · Historical UFCF (quarterly)
Statement-built unlevered free cash flow by quarter
| Period | Revenue | Cost of revenue | Operating expense | EBIT | D&A | Capex | UFCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020Q2 | $459.5M | $173.6M | $251.1M | $34.8M | $155.5M | $102.9M | $110.0M |
| 2020Q3 | $473.5M | $183.7M | $252.9M | $37.0M | $129.8M | $106.7M | $17.2M |
| 2020Q4 | $489.3M | $196.0M | $263.2M | $30.1M | $132.9M | $124.6M | $68.1M |
| 2021Q1 | $482.6M | $177.9M | $251.2M | $53.5M | $129.3M | $187.1M | $-106.5M |
| 2021Q2 | $499.8M | $194.1M | $240.5M | $65.3M | $119.0M | $92.2M | $113.8M |
| 2021Q3 | $504.7M | $200.5M | $241.6M | $62.6M | $120.6M | $98.3M | $36.9M |
| 2021Q4 | $498.6M | $211.2M | $251.8M | $35.6M | $122.5M | $94.3M | $214.5M |
| 2022Q1 | $501.5M | $210.2M | $246.2M | $45.1M | $120.4M | $117.2M | $-68.7M |
| 2022Q2 | $499.3M | $214.3M | $239.1M | $45.9M | $116.6M | $82.7M | $87.0M |
| 2022Q3 | $497.4M | $219.5M | $230.8M | $47.0M | $110.2M | $66.4M | $40.0M |
| 2022Q4 | $499.9M | $218.0M | $230.2M | $51.6M | $110.4M | $82.7M | $95.0M |
| 2023Q1 | $4.39B | $2.98B | $1.05B | $353.3M | $347.8M | $766.3M | $49.3M |
| 2023Q2 | $4.36B | $2.98B | $1.13B | $252.2M | $370.6M | $934.5M | $-198.8M |
| 2023Q3 | $4.11B | $2.98B | $1.16B | $-31.3M | $397.2M | $832.9M | $-236.9M |
| 2023Q4 | $15.71B | $11.39B | $4.69B | $-372.6M | $1.29B | $2.89B | $688.7M |
| 2024Q1 | $4.01B | $2.92B | $1.11B | $-15.2M | $485.4M | $519.6M | $27.0M |
| 2024Q2 | $3.95B | $2.92B | $1.10B | $-65.4M | $507.5M | $347.3M | $286.4M |
| 2024Q3 | $3.89B | $2.93B | $1.12B | $-160.8M | $477.4M | $333.7M | $29.6M |
| 2024Q4 | $3.97B | $3.01B | $1.02B | $-62.7M | $459.8M | $653.0M | $-992.2M |
| 2025Q1 | $3.87B | $2.43B | $1.53B | $-88.1M | $488.3M | $258.4M | $81.4M |
| 2025Q2 | $3.72B | $2.82B | $1.12B | $-213.4M | $493.1M | $746.9M | $-601.8M |
| 2025Q3 | $3.61B | $2.76B | $1.01B | $-160.4M | $391.3M | $197.7M | $12.57B |
| 2025Q4 | $3.80B | $2.68B | $744.3M | $370.8M | $-1.37B | $158.1M | $916.7M |
| 2026Q1 | $3.67B | $2.54B | $805.6M | $326.7M | $166.6M | $133.4M | $509.8M |